News Article From: 09-21-2007
August ARMLS Reports
Resale Listings
The listing count reported in the August ARMLS Reports, which were released on September 14th, was 57,207—up 1,291 listings from the July reports. After a moderate fall off in the listing count in the fourth quarter of 2006, growth in this number has resumed climbing to an all time high. The record level of listings prior to January 2005 was 30,046 listings in February 2003. The monthly listing quantity climbed 2.3% from July to August.
If your clients do not believe that the market has changed, and they expect multiple offers and selling prices exceeding the listing prices, use this information. Tell them, “Compared to August 2005, listings have increased by over 40,000!”
Resale Sales
ARMLS-reported sales for August dropped 8% from the July sales figure with an decrease of 377 sales. On an annually adjusted basis sales were down 1,765 or almost 30% from August 2006. August sales quantity is typically very close to July, so this quantity is on par for the normal calendar cycle. In this normal calendar cycle, sales tend to be highest in the summer and then gradually taper off over the next few months before resuming the climb during the first quarter of each year. The winter months are consistently the lowest in sales.
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Our sources of data for these displays are the ARMLS reports. In these, there are three months, January – March 2005, for which we have not shown listing data because of apparent discrepancies. Additionally, ARMLS notes that the listing information for March through August 2002 may contain errors, but we have chosen to display this reasonable data above.
Our Assessment of the Resale Market Supply and demand are interrelated variables in the Real Estate Market, but changes in the current market are being driven almost exclusively by the supply variable. Up until two years ago, demand was the primary driver. In the last few months demand has also fallen off substantially from what we had considered the norm - a pace similar to 2002 and 2003.
Because of the prolonged over-supply situation, appreciation in resale housing prices has totally disappeared. The market is now entering a phase where we expect to see an overall price level decline. A significant price adjustment or an extended period of flat prices will be necessary to realign the supply and demand variable. It is difficult to tell how long that will take.
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